Reading a collection of Edward Abbey's writing, and of course, he being a world class curmudgeon,I thought about it a bit. Why are they as a stereotypical group grumpy in the first place? There is a nucleus of truth in stereotypes. As I slowly transition in to that certain age, I am definitely feeling the curmudgeon facet of my personality grow and express itself. And here is what I'm thinking so far.
There is good damn reason for EVERYONE to be pissed, but as we age, several realizations occur. First, with longer residence on this earth, the perspective changes. There is more ability to see long term trends, particularly of degradation. You haven't been fooled by the moving baseline like younger folk. Second, anger at oneself for being (however small) a part of the problem for possibly a long time. Third, frustration in seeing that most people are caught up in the rush of survival, and even when they wake up, look around, and see what is happening, realize that there is almost nothing that can be done about "our predicament". And fourth, with proximity to the grave, all the paths not taken and life not lived and wrongs not righted come to the front.
The price of wisdom is steep. Wisdom that evolves in to acceptance and inner peace is fine for some, for others of us, being a curmudgeon is the way to go.
Here is a quote from Edward Abbey, especially for engineers, technicians and scientists out there.
"........engineers and technicians have no interest in our personal preferences except as data to be tabulated and attitudes to be manipulated. They love us no more than we love them; and they certainly have no love for the earth. What is perhaps most sinister of all is the fact that in this worldwide drive to reduce life, human and otherwise, to the limits of a technotronic system, there is not even a mind at work. Many brains, but no mind. Nor heart nor soul. There is no intelligence directing this enormous and enormously complex process; merely the cumulative efforts of thousands of specialists, experts, each sequestered in his tiny niche in the technological apparatus, each unaware or indifferent to the investigations of all but his closest colleagues, each man in his way an innocent. How can we think of a man who spends years studying the behavior of hamsters in an electrified maze as anything but a harmless idiot? Yet the results of his study, combined with the studies of other similar harmless idiots, may result in knowledge useful, let us say, to a central police agency concerned with the problem of controlling an urban populace in revolt."
BOOM- right in our face. How do you think of that man. How do you think of yourself? Listen to the curmudgeons. Become one.
News on the move to the farm later.
Sunday, May 18, 2014
Sunday, March 23, 2014
malthus interrruptus
Here is something I wrote a while back in response to an article link that was sent to me.
Here is the article, and my response follows.
I’ll start off by presuming this article is serious, and not an onion rip off.
Assuming that, this guy is a cretin and wrong on so many levels. BTW- Casey you shit- getting us riled up at random intervals gratifies what twisted urge?
First, Malthus was mostly wrong, but not entirely. A key issue he did not consider, or even know about, was the multiplier effect of fossil fuels in man’s ability to exceed the carrying capacity of the land. The coal fired Industrial Revolution was just getting going when he wrote, so its effect in agriculture and human logistics was still in its infancy.
Taking this in to account, the Malthusian trap is not eliminated, but merely delayed and made worse by much greater population overshoot. (Google St. Matthew Island reindeer for an extreme example of what population overshoot can look like)
Here are a few logic and factual problems with the article.
Extrapolation of trends without justifying that the trend will stay linear.
Extrapolation of trends without understanding the relationship of all the dependent and independent variables.
Ignoring or not defining or not understanding boundary conditions in establishing the status and future state of the system.
Here is a good one from his article:
"The science of human sustenance is inherently a social science. Neither physics nor chemistry nor even biology is adequate to understand how it has been possible for one species to reshape both its own future and the destiny of an entire planet."
Ummm- His logic would make one think that since individually, physics, chemistry and biology can’t explain human sustenance, we must rely on social science to do so. No, we must take ALL OF THEM in to account. And by the way, add one more- ecology. While the word “Ecology” has been politicized, oversimplified and overused, it really is one of the sciences, and the principle one to use in understanding just how much of the biomass pie we humans can get away with taking without crashing the system.
An implicit assumption of his is that the ecosystem can be modified and shifted to man’s ends without potential for upsetting its stability. On a small level, there is plenty of resiliency in the system so that we can acquire a large fraction of the biomass with reasonable sustainability . However, the ecosystem is a SYSTEM, and the constituent parts work together in a mutually beneficial balance that has taken millions of years to develop. Changing the entire planet to a vast single acreage of corn, to exaggerate, would cause collapse. Where that line is beyond which the tipping point occurs we do not know. To continue in that direction without knowing is one definition of hubris.
He takes a simple observation, that man has been able to leverage his intelligence to get more biomass for his use than would otherwise naturally occur, and tries to use this as justification that this trend can continue indefinitely and he can therefore completely “delink” from the dependency on the energy flows of the natural world. Good luck with that.
OK, so let’s examine some evidence. Granted that crop production has trended up for decades, and the increased population is evidence that sufficient energy is being harvested that populations continue to climb. However, many indicators are flashing red, and no solutions I know of are in the pipeline. Here are a few.
World fisheries are in collapse. This source of protein is declining.
Irrigated cropland has depleted many aquifers, resulting in less production, and in some cases, desertification. Many more are nearing depletion, including here in the U.S.
Topsoil continues to be lost throughout the world, even in many areas of the U.S. that have switched to no till methods.
Phosphorus, a key fertilizer, is nearing depletion in the next 20-40 years at current rates of use.
ALL modern high production agriculture is fossil fuel dependent. Crude has been bouncing around the $100/barrel range for over two years, and that price signal has not brought enough oil in to the market. This is an indicator that oil is not likely to go down to past prices without prior massive demand destruction. This means that the cost of food most probably has a new, higher basement level, with attendant disruption (Arab Spring, anyone?) It also means that we are most probably at peak oil, meaning that food production cannot continue to climb through increased fuel use, but only through improved fuel efficiency. Political winds aren’t blowing in that direction here in the U.S. these days.
There are multiple sources listing other key indicators that are trending in bad directions. I won’t chase any more down for now. The point is, this guy was able to put a shit opinion article in “the newspaper of record”, and apparently the editors were ok with it.
Coincidentally, the latest entry on the “Do the Math” website is rather timely, and gives lie to the notion that overpopulation is a third world problem.
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2013/09/the-real-population-problem/
(ya gotta read the whole thing.)
OK, rant off.
Here is the article, and my response follows.
I’ll start off by presuming this article is serious, and not an onion rip off.
Assuming that, this guy is a cretin and wrong on so many levels. BTW- Casey you shit- getting us riled up at random intervals gratifies what twisted urge?
First, Malthus was mostly wrong, but not entirely. A key issue he did not consider, or even know about, was the multiplier effect of fossil fuels in man’s ability to exceed the carrying capacity of the land. The coal fired Industrial Revolution was just getting going when he wrote, so its effect in agriculture and human logistics was still in its infancy.
Taking this in to account, the Malthusian trap is not eliminated, but merely delayed and made worse by much greater population overshoot. (Google St. Matthew Island reindeer for an extreme example of what population overshoot can look like)
Here are a few logic and factual problems with the article.
Extrapolation of trends without justifying that the trend will stay linear.
Extrapolation of trends without understanding the relationship of all the dependent and independent variables.
Ignoring or not defining or not understanding boundary conditions in establishing the status and future state of the system.
Here is a good one from his article:
"The science of human sustenance is inherently a social science. Neither physics nor chemistry nor even biology is adequate to understand how it has been possible for one species to reshape both its own future and the destiny of an entire planet."
Ummm- His logic would make one think that since individually, physics, chemistry and biology can’t explain human sustenance, we must rely on social science to do so. No, we must take ALL OF THEM in to account. And by the way, add one more- ecology. While the word “Ecology” has been politicized, oversimplified and overused, it really is one of the sciences, and the principle one to use in understanding just how much of the biomass pie we humans can get away with taking without crashing the system.
An implicit assumption of his is that the ecosystem can be modified and shifted to man’s ends without potential for upsetting its stability. On a small level, there is plenty of resiliency in the system so that we can acquire a large fraction of the biomass with reasonable sustainability . However, the ecosystem is a SYSTEM, and the constituent parts work together in a mutually beneficial balance that has taken millions of years to develop. Changing the entire planet to a vast single acreage of corn, to exaggerate, would cause collapse. Where that line is beyond which the tipping point occurs we do not know. To continue in that direction without knowing is one definition of hubris.
He takes a simple observation, that man has been able to leverage his intelligence to get more biomass for his use than would otherwise naturally occur, and tries to use this as justification that this trend can continue indefinitely and he can therefore completely “delink” from the dependency on the energy flows of the natural world. Good luck with that.
OK, so let’s examine some evidence. Granted that crop production has trended up for decades, and the increased population is evidence that sufficient energy is being harvested that populations continue to climb. However, many indicators are flashing red, and no solutions I know of are in the pipeline. Here are a few.
World fisheries are in collapse. This source of protein is declining.
Irrigated cropland has depleted many aquifers, resulting in less production, and in some cases, desertification. Many more are nearing depletion, including here in the U.S.
Topsoil continues to be lost throughout the world, even in many areas of the U.S. that have switched to no till methods.
Phosphorus, a key fertilizer, is nearing depletion in the next 20-40 years at current rates of use.
ALL modern high production agriculture is fossil fuel dependent. Crude has been bouncing around the $100/barrel range for over two years, and that price signal has not brought enough oil in to the market. This is an indicator that oil is not likely to go down to past prices without prior massive demand destruction. This means that the cost of food most probably has a new, higher basement level, with attendant disruption (Arab Spring, anyone?) It also means that we are most probably at peak oil, meaning that food production cannot continue to climb through increased fuel use, but only through improved fuel efficiency. Political winds aren’t blowing in that direction here in the U.S. these days.
There are multiple sources listing other key indicators that are trending in bad directions. I won’t chase any more down for now. The point is, this guy was able to put a shit opinion article in “the newspaper of record”, and apparently the editors were ok with it.
Coincidentally, the latest entry on the “Do the Math” website is rather timely, and gives lie to the notion that overpopulation is a third world problem.
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2013/09/the-real-population-problem/
(ya gotta read the whole thing.)
OK, rant off.
Sunday, February 23, 2014
grow lights
So, the 2014 garden seed order was even bigger than I had suspected. Oh, and I guess we ARE doing sweet potatoes this year. Need to read up on that. We will be expanding the garden area considerably, squeezing in new sections as close to the house as possible, and as flat as possible. After looking at the list, I went to the store to buy more lights. Bought more starter trays also. (Some were wearing out anyway, going on their fourth year) A lot of plants need to be started indoors both to save money and to fit in the growing season. (We are zone 4B in the new USDA hardiness numbering system).
So here is the new set up in my workroom. This is just the ones I could fit in the photo, there are more behind me.
.
Nothing in the trays yet, just had some set out to get the light adjustment close. Onions will be the first we plant, since we are starting from seeds, and then some cool weather stuff like broccoli. Other new crops this year- collards and flint corn for making our own corn meal.
Tomatoes ( 100 plants!!) will start around mid April, since our 90% confidence last frost date is like May 26. We will be putting up more deer/rabbit fence also, so we want more of the veggies for US. Each year, we plan to grow more and more of our own food, and preserve more also. Any ideas for what to do with all the once used canning lids? We are trying Tattler, but aren't sold on them yet. Have had a higher incidence of non sealing, they seem to be touchier about getting the ring tightened just right during canning.
So here is the new set up in my workroom. This is just the ones I could fit in the photo, there are more behind me.
Nothing in the trays yet, just had some set out to get the light adjustment close. Onions will be the first we plant, since we are starting from seeds, and then some cool weather stuff like broccoli. Other new crops this year- collards and flint corn for making our own corn meal.
Tomatoes ( 100 plants!!) will start around mid April, since our 90% confidence last frost date is like May 26. We will be putting up more deer/rabbit fence also, so we want more of the veggies for US. Each year, we plan to grow more and more of our own food, and preserve more also. Any ideas for what to do with all the once used canning lids? We are trying Tattler, but aren't sold on them yet. Have had a higher incidence of non sealing, they seem to be touchier about getting the ring tightened just right during canning.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
seed catalog season
Yes, we've been flipping through the catalogs that find there way here, both from companies we've bought from, and from some we've never heard of before. I'm told we are going for 100 tomato plants this year, so maybe we are done seed shopping! That is going to take a lot of room, so we might be expanding the garden more than I had planned for.
New plants for this year- still mulling that over. Last year we did a lot ( too much) cabbage. We put up a lot of cabbage in various ways, and I did my first batch of kraut, but did not tend it carefully, so it lost its crispness. Taste was ok, just not that palatable.
New plants for this year- still mulling that over. Last year we did a lot ( too much) cabbage. We put up a lot of cabbage in various ways, and I did my first batch of kraut, but did not tend it carefully, so it lost its crispness. Taste was ok, just not that palatable.
Anyway, we will try a couple new varieties of dry beans this year. My sister in law grew some flat green beans (Roma) we really liked, so I think we will try them also. We've been saving back bean seeds for a few years now, so we are expanding the bean planting each year also. We were surprised by how the lima beans (our first try at them) finally came through late in the fall after just sitting there all summer, so we'll keep them on the list. I don't think we'll try sweet potatoes till we move.
So yeah, the catalogs tend to get us excited about the upcoming garden year, and Jonny's is one of the best. I'll bet I saw 20 sticky notes hanging out of it tagging selections. I have already set up the sawhorses, plywood and heat mats in the basement. I will hang the grow lights when it gets a little closer. Major project for this year besides expansion is redoing the deer fence to a more permanent structure. Next year will be when we finish the terraces in the east yard, start the terraces and cold frames on the south slope, and redo our asparagus and rhubarb beds.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
the workshop job list
Once the workshop is functional, I have a long list of projects that I've been hoping to start working on.
Here is a tentative list for starters.
cider press
solar dehydrator- Appalachian State University design
solar dehydrator- Larisa Walk design
solar panel ground mount frame
root cellar trusses
sapling puller
log hauler
slow sand water filter
chicken pasture tractor
outdoor oven steel components
a bike power module- bike, gears, flywheel, and support frame. This will be the power supply for a collection of bike powered, farm scale devices.
apple grinder
water pump
grain thresher
grain mill
I have a couple other, far out ideas, but those I'll save for when I get through these.
Here is a tentative list for starters.
cider press
solar dehydrator- Appalachian State University design
solar dehydrator- Larisa Walk design
solar panel ground mount frame
root cellar trusses
sapling puller
log hauler
slow sand water filter
chicken pasture tractor
outdoor oven steel components
a bike power module- bike, gears, flywheel, and support frame. This will be the power supply for a collection of bike powered, farm scale devices.
apple grinder
water pump
grain thresher
grain mill
I have a couple other, far out ideas, but those I'll save for when I get through these.
Saturday, October 26, 2013
Solar concentrating
This post is in response to a call put out on a web blog I follow, asking for appropriate technologies for the energy constrained future. I am calling the generic concept descent engineering, and here is the idea I explored.
An idea for Krampus:
Idea: high temperature processing
The problem: Maintaining an ability to make materials
requiring high temperature processing when fossil fuels are no longer available
and a high technology culture and infrastructure are no longer functional.
Summary:
Two of the primary materials we currently use in our built
infrastructure are cement and steel. Metallic tools and devices are also
integral to a technic society. These are very energy intensive materials to
make. The idea of using concentrated solar energy is explored in this paper,
and a description of a proposed facility and associated technology is described.
The scenario where this facility would be appropriate is a future in
which a salvage economy would provide raw materials, and knowledge of metallurgy
and related technologies have been preserved.
Current status of
technology:
The linked article has a good overview of the general concepts
involved, and links to information on the two largest facilities built to date.
Solar heat concentration is scalable, so one decision to make is what size is
needed for the most likely batch or process in mind, and reasonable to build
with limited resources in a future energy constrained world.
The solar furnace at Odeillo, France , built in 1969, is currently the largest solar
furnace built, and did research for a
number of years. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_furnace
Another similar sized furnace was built in Uzbekistan in the
80’s, and is also no longer in service.
They both used modern technology for tracking and process
control. Odeillo reaches temperatures of 6330 F, which is much more than needed
to melt ferrous metals.
Overall facility description: A high temperature processing
facility would be a large investment , with the main support structure for the
parabolic concentrator being on the
order of 50 meters tall and 50 meters wide. While the future capacity need is
uncertain, it is unlikely that very many would be justified. The main components are the array field, the
large parabolic concentrator, and the focal receiver. The engineering challenge
is to design a solar furnace facility similar to the existing ones, but
assemble and operate it in a technology and resource constrained world.
There are other high temperature applications this facility
could be used for also, further justifying the effort to build it. For example,
photochemical processing, http://www.pre.ethz.ch/publications/0_pdf/books/Solar_Thermochemical_Process_Technology.pdf
photo catalytic processing, and high temperature ceramics
Assumptions on design
limitations:
The facility should be designed to enable replication of its
constituent components. Smelting and
making steel structural members, heating limestone to make lime or cement, and
melting sand to make new mirrors are all things that a solar furnace would be
able to do.
Sizing the facility for reasonable production levels: Sufficiently high temperature is only part of
the sizing question. Sufficient total
heat available will define how much mass can be brought to smelting
temperature, so maximum rate and total BTU collected in one day will govern the
batch size.
Batch processing: Due to the high temperatures needed, it is
not envisioned that a solar processor would store heat in some medium for long runs
like CSP steam generation plants do now, rather the unit would need to be
designed for single day batch runs. This implies batch limits based on the
processing time and time to bring the mass up from ambient to processing
temperatures. This will be the main variable for sizing the collector field and
parabolic concentrator. The Odiello facility has a concentrator of 1800 square
meters, and 63 heliostats.
Utilization of unused heat: For periods when insolation is
not adequate for smelting or limestone calcination, it might still be collected
and used for lower temperature activities and thermal heat storage. A facility
like this would lend itself to the concept of collocated industry, where
synergies in energy use and material streams are optimized. District heating
schemes, common in Europe now, might also be a side benefit.
Location criteria: Locating a solar processing furnace would
of course primarily driven by maximum solar insolation. A south facing slope of
the site would help with efficient land use and mirror placement. Proximity to
raw materials would be important also. Limestone deposits would be needed for
making lime or cement, and steel or iron nearby would minimize transport costs.
Mining the ruins of Las Vegas might well be a good first location.
Smelting steel: Steel is relatively straightforward to melt,
but assuring the ability to obtain the desired metallurgy and mechanical
properties would necessitate some ways to get the alloying mix right without
modern instrumentation. Reference books explaining early steel works, which
relied on visual indications, would need to be secured, studied, and the
methods practiced. One advantage of solar heating for smelting scrap is that it
does not introduce any impurities into the charge. This link shows that the
knowledge to do alloys without modern instruments is available, but needs to be
collected and the skills relearned.
example of “low tech” steel making
To effectively control alloy content, scrap and salvage
would need to be categorized and then blended to get the intended mixture in
the melt. This will require coordination with scrap and salvage
businesses.
Solar heating: A key engineering challenge will be figuring
out how to direct the solar ray onto the mass with a high efficiency, while
controlling and monitoring the melt. Also, a solar field geometry similar to
Odiello will have the rays coming in to the focus area horizontally, but a
crucible full of melting or molten steel will need to be oriented vertically,
with continuous sides in order to contain the liquid.
Making lime and cement:
The need for cement and lime as building materials in a future energy
decent era would be less than now, but there will be specific applications
where it would still be worth the investment of energy. Some buildings in this future might well
revert to a long term sustainable design approach based on stone and lime, with
high initial effort to build, but with a lifetime measured in centuries. Cement,
and resultant concrete, being a rather
short lived material, may recede in use.
links on making cement and lime:
This last linked article is specifically about the design
parameters and economics of making lime with a solar concentrator.
Allayed necessary
technologies:
Making mirrors: A facility like this would need to be self
replicating in some respects. One aspect would be making new mirrors for
replacements or to build another facility. The following links show methods of
making plate glass with relatively simple methods, as well as silvering the
glass.
how to make plate glass
silvering glass to make mirrors
Tracking: Without
current electronic control systems, based on plc controlled stepper motors,
sensors, and machined mechanical components, tracking would need to be done
with simpler methods. Clockwork type mechanisms have been used in the past to
aim small heliostats, so some design work would need to be done to make a
large, strong actuator that could withstand transient wind loads and maintain
adequate accuracy. It may well be that a combination of clockwork mechanism
with some daily human adjustment would end up being the optimal way to solve “low
tech” tracking.
Crucible melting ferrous metals
making refractory materials adequate to contain steel
smelting is a challenge that needs research. Current crucible materials are
based on very specific chemistry and processing, and I have not yet found a low
tech alternative.
Sunday, August 11, 2013
outbuildings
The pole barn is essentially done. All I have left to do is finish a bit of drywall in the enclosed workroom my friend Barry and I built inside. Now to fill it up! We've already taken a trailer load of long term storage items up, and I'll be moving mowers, other stuff up to the barn and freeing up the garage for actually parking cars.
It has mows on each end, so we can store small bale straw or hay.
Any farm needs outbuildings, but they are not cheap, so one will be enough for quite a while. It's hard to find level ground on our farm close to the house, so that limits us as well. I will probably build a chicken coop along the lines of Harvey Ussery's concept in a couple years.
We used local contractor to build it, as we don't live there yet, and even if we did, this would be at the limits of my skills to do, and couldn't do by myself anyway. We are getting to know the neighbors, who are all very nice, but enlisting them in a barn raising is a bit much just yet.
Photo taken in the last couple days the contractor was on site. Dirt work took only two days, the pole barn work took the better part of two weeks. Very small crew, so really it went pretty fast. We decided on two 12' sliders so one can drive through, making it easier to unload hay, or access stuff from either side if the main floor is blocked with stored equipment.
Barry framing in a window. Yes, I have a window from the workshop out in to the barn. It will be good for cross breeze in the summer, and it was a leftover window I had been hanging on to for a couple years, so might as well use it. Will have a double door into the workshop, for those bigger projects.
I made the ceiling joists extra strong, so it can handle hay storage above. 12" I joists on 16" centers, because of the 20' span. Got a lot of good help from the lumber yard that supplied the material. Made me glad I didn't go to Menards for a "cheaper" price. This lumber yard has pole barn designers, make their own trusses, and can actually supply dimensional lumber that is grade 1, or even select structural. And it was straight! No sorting though piles of bowed, twisted stuff at Menards.
Next year I will also add power, and set up the rain collection tanks.
It has mows on each end, so we can store small bale straw or hay.
Any farm needs outbuildings, but they are not cheap, so one will be enough for quite a while. It's hard to find level ground on our farm close to the house, so that limits us as well. I will probably build a chicken coop along the lines of Harvey Ussery's concept in a couple years.
We used local contractor to build it, as we don't live there yet, and even if we did, this would be at the limits of my skills to do, and couldn't do by myself anyway. We are getting to know the neighbors, who are all very nice, but enlisting them in a barn raising is a bit much just yet.
Photo taken in the last couple days the contractor was on site. Dirt work took only two days, the pole barn work took the better part of two weeks. Very small crew, so really it went pretty fast. We decided on two 12' sliders so one can drive through, making it easier to unload hay, or access stuff from either side if the main floor is blocked with stored equipment.
Barry framing in a window. Yes, I have a window from the workshop out in to the barn. It will be good for cross breeze in the summer, and it was a leftover window I had been hanging on to for a couple years, so might as well use it. Will have a double door into the workshop, for those bigger projects.
I made the ceiling joists extra strong, so it can handle hay storage above. 12" I joists on 16" centers, because of the 20' span. Got a lot of good help from the lumber yard that supplied the material. Made me glad I didn't go to Menards for a "cheaper" price. This lumber yard has pole barn designers, make their own trusses, and can actually supply dimensional lumber that is grade 1, or even select structural. And it was straight! No sorting though piles of bowed, twisted stuff at Menards.
Next year I will also add power, and set up the rain collection tanks.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)